User Image

Easy Financial Markets


image for link to NEWSLETTER


S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

From a high level, investors must realize that future investment returns are poor when trading at all-time high valuations. The current price to sales ratio in the S&P 500 is by far the highest ever. The Fed is about to start QT AND hiking rates - this is the top. 

Not advice, I’m not an advisor: But it’s time to SELL SELL SELL SELL

#stocks #money #finance #investing
Everyone thinks long-term rates are coming down! The scenario investors are not prepared for is one where inevitable Fed rate cuts buoy growth expectations and keep long-end yields elevated. The 60/40 portfolio would be dead as we know it in this world. 

#inflation #rates #yields #fixedincome
Government interest payments have surged! Get ready for this to be a major talking point during election 2024. The governments payment of interest has surged as rates have risen, a major problem for our never ending deficit that younger millennials and Gen Z will be handed the problem to. 

#deficit #interestpayments #government #economics #inequality #federalreserve #powell
China real estate crash! The high yield index on Chinese real estate developers is now down -82 (!) from its high. Keep in mind this crash started well after Covid as government policies began to restrict credit growth. Put simply, they popped the bubble before it got any bigger. 

#chinarealestate #realestate #china #housingcrash #economic #usdcny #eurusd
Rent growth vs income growth since the 1980s 🤯
Credit vs equities, who will win? The SPX has diverged higher from lending standards that are very tight. One big reason - after Covid we entered and income-driven economic cycle, NOT a credit-driven cycle like pre 2008. This means the economic is less sensitive to rising rates. However, rising rates will have an impact. The question is do rates stay high long enough to tank equities?

#stocks #interestrates #credit #economy #recession #spx #s&p500
Emerging markets may be at a turning point! Emerging market asset prices (bonds/stocks/currencies combined in black) have been trending lower for a DECADE. Keep in mind, these countries are growing faster than developed markets. Meanwhile, the macro environment has changed to benefit them much more post-Covid. The recent breadth thrust is one of the strongest in years… this may be a turning point for EM. 

#emergingmarkets #globalgrowth #stocks #bonds #fx #emfx #economics #money